Last night on Twitter and today, I discussed whether Milwaukee would accept a straight-up offer of Matt Adams for Adam Lind. Immediate reaction is that it seems like an overpay for the Cardinals for Lind, but I don’t think so. That may come because I never truly believed in Adams as a Major League caliber player. The power plays, but does the rest of his skill set? Here’s why I think the way I do.
1. Matt Adams has taken a step back every season he’s spent in the big leagues.
I consider 2013 his first real big league season. That season he had a phenomenal September in relief of the injured Allen Craig that may have set the expectations too high. He slugged 17 homers in just 319 plate appearances and put up a 129 OPS+. Since then, he’s taken steps backwards in every season.
In 2013, projected at 600 plate appearances, he was on pace to hit 32 homers. In 2014, that fell to 16 and then this year a little further to 15.
In 2013 he had an OPS of .839. In 2014, that fell to .779 and then further this year to .656.
Now basically two and a half seasons into his MLB career he’s shown himself to be little more than a platoon caliber player with his .198 career average against left handed pitching.
2. Matt Adams will be arbitration eligible for the first time this fall.
Because of the injury and the aforementioned steps backwards, he won’t get as much as he could, but he will still probably be making a couple million dollars. For a guy that you aren’t sure can be that everyday player, is that the right investment for you to be making?
3. Adam Lind is as good or better than Adams right now.
Lind and Adams are similar players. Both have power as their main calling card and both profile as the kind of players you want to platoon. The only difference is that Lind is five years older and has a little more proven performance in his background.
Lind is on pace for 26 home runs this season and is hitting .285. It isn’t a fluke year for Lind who has done this before, more than once. The Cardinals are in position to win now and I think it’s time to make a move like you are. If you could pick up Lind without giving up one of your top level prospects, that’s a win all around regardless of what Adams goes on to do in Milwaukee.
Going forward, Lind actually would fit well into the Cardinals’ plans. He can platoon with Stephen Piscotty at first base while Piscotty picks up some ABs in the outfield too. It carves out for Piscotty the kind of role that Allen Craig had with the Cardinals in 2011 and 2012. When you consider exactly how such a move would fit together, I think it makes sense.
After all of this you may be asking why Milwaukee would want him now that I’ve torn him apart. Cost savings and the potential.
Out of the gate you’re saving the Brewers $8 million next year and a few million the rest of this year. Obviously the Brewers will pick up that option if they can’t trade him because of the value Lind can provide at the plate.
Then there is the potential of Matt Adams and the player he has been. Milwaukee can give him the ability to play everyday to find that potential in a way that St. Louis can’t. If Matt Adams isn’t going to be an above average hitter today, a championship contending ball club like the Cardinals doesn’t have the luxury of waiting on him to become it.
The Brewers have the ability to let Adams play regularly and come into his own. I’d even be willing to send along a low level lottery ticket prospect to grease the wheels.
On our monthly UCB Radio hit, Kevin and I talked that this was probably the make-or-break year for Adams as far as whether he figured into the organization’s long term plans. This injury probably bought him another season, which was lucky for him because this year wasn’t turning out so well for him.
For his part, John Mozeliak still seems to be high on Adams as an everyday player that you want to see taking 600+ plate appearances. He’s even said that he doesn’t want to block him with any trade acquisition, but I am hopeful that that is just to create a bargaining position. I see Matt Adams’ value at a tipping point that may be as high as it will be going forward. Historically, that is when Mozeliak strikes.
Jon Doble has been writing about the St. Louis Cardinals since 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @JonDoble and catch him hosting UCB Radio on the fourth Wednesday of every month. Redbird Dugout is a member of the United Cardinal Bloggers.